York, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

059
FXUS63 KGID 141726
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1226 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into
  tonight for portions of south central Nebraska and north
  central Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
  main concerns, although a tornado cannot be entirely ruled
  out.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
  Wednesday through Friday.

- A shift in the weather pattern will result in a chance for
  some showers and thunderstorms over the weekend and possibly
  into the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

The weather pattern that has been in place over the last several
days is finally changing, which will bring some relief from the heat
to the area later this week. Split flow continues this morning with
an upper trough over the southeastern U.S. and a broad upper ridge
over Quebec. The Central High Plains will come under southwest flow
this morning as an upper trough pushes in from the east. A deepening
closed low will move across the Bighorns later this morning, pushing
into the Nebraska Panhandle and the Dakotas later today. A cold
front will move west to east across the forecast area today. Ahead
of the front, breezy southeast winds will increase to around 10-20
MPH with gusts to 30 MPH. RH values will fall to around 20-30% in
the southwestern portion of the area. The lowest RH values will not
be co-located with the strongest winds. Elevated to near-critical
fire weather conditions will be possible this afternoon. The main
near-critical area will be for areas along and west of a line from
Cambridge, NE to Natoma, KS.

Expect the heat to continue this afternoon with highs primarily in
the 80s. A few locations south of Hwy 34 may reach the low 90s. The
environment destabilizes this afternoon with SBCAPE values around
2000 J/kg, MLCAPE values around 2000+ J/kg and steep lapse rates.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon along the
front, posing mainly a large hail and damaging wind event. Areas
near the triple point will have a chance of an isolated tornado.
Thunderstorms will start of discrete, eventually congealing into a
line as they move across central Nebraska.

We are expecting two rounds of shower/storm activity associated with
this system. The first round will be the best chance of seeing
severe weather and should push east, out of our area between 06Z and
09Z (1AM to 3AM). The second round will be on the back side of the
system and is currently forecast to be on the western fringes of our
CWA somewhere between 09Z and 11Z (3AM to 5AM). This second round of
showers and isolated thunderstorms will stay north of I-80.

Showers and storms will lift to the northeast, out of the area by
midday Thursday. Cooler air behind the front will filter into the
region, bringing some relief from the summer-like temperatures we`ve
experienced the past several days. Expected high temperatures will
range from the mid-70s to low 80s. Near-critical to critical fire
weather conditions will be possible mainly for areas along and south
of I-80.

The cooler temperatures remain Friday into Saturday with highs
ranging from the low 70s to low 80s. Lows will be primarily in the
40s and 50s. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions will
be possible both afternoons as winds gust up to 20-25 MPH and
humidity values fall between 18-26%.

Saturday afternoon through the end of the forecast period, periodic
chances for daily showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a
few embedded shortwave troughs lift into the region.

Tuesday, a storm system will lift from the Four Corners Region into
the High Plains and Central High Plains. Cooler temperatures,
potentially in the 60s and 70s for highs will be possible along with
chances for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Gusty SE wind will continue this afternoon, gusts near 30 MPH
possible at both terminal sites...currently have cloud bases
remaining VFR (barely). This evening through tonight, main story
lies with continued gusty winds and the passage of a cold
front...though showers/storms are not totally out of the
question. At this point, models models continue to keep the
better potential for precipitation north of the terminal
sites...so only have a mention in PROB30 groups. Confidence in
anything impacting the terminals is not high at all. As far as
winds go, they remain generally southeasterly through the
evening hours, with this frontal boundary looking to push east
right around/right after 06Z. Behind this front, winds switch
to the west, remaining that way through the end of the period.
Winds are gusty behind the front...but look to be stronger
closer to/after sunrise, with gusts around 40 MPH currently
forecast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...ADP