York, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

029
FXUS63 KGID 251058
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
458 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At least over the next three days, the ongoing Dense Fog
  Advisory (currently valid through Noon for our entire forecast
  area/CWA) is by far the main weather concern.

- Record high temperatures for Dec. 26th are in reach Friday
  (mid-upper 60s forecast for most of our CWA...see separate
  CLIMATE section below for Grand Island/Hastings details).

- While Saturday remains very mild, we get at least a brief
  "blast of winter reality" Sunday-Monday with highs only in the
  20s-30s behind a fairly strong cold front...and POSSIBLY even
  a quick dusting of light snow for parts of our CWA Sunday AM.

- North winds could to around 40 MPH Sunday behind the
  aforementioned front...not overly-strong but easily the
  strongest winds of the 7-day forecast.

- Temperatures currently appear to recover fairly quickly for
  Tues-Wed with highs at least well back up into the 40s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 457 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

-- MOST NOTABLE CHANGES WITHIN THE 7-DAY FORECAST AS A WHOLE:
- Although still looking like a like a rather minor "event"
  with very minimal accumulation potential, our forecast now at
  least acknowledges a slight (20 percent) chance of snow on
  Sunday for most of our CWA.

- Temperatures for Sunday have also trended down with most areas
  only 20s-low 30s during the day and wind chills only single
  digits-teens thanks to the moderately-strong winds (Sunday
  will feel like a bit of a "shock to the system" after
  preceding warmth).


-- EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM:
Although if anything expanding westward perhaps a bit slower
than previously expected, overall the "wall" of widespread very
low clouds and fog/dense fog (visibility commonly 1/2 mile or
less) is very much out there as expected, now solidly blanketing
nearly all of our counties along/east of Highway 281, and
slowly-but-surely expanding westward into counties west of
Highway 281 thanks to very light easterly surface/low level
breezes. Out ahead of (west of) the gradually expanding mass of
low-level "grunge", mostly clear skies have allowed overnight
low temperatures across most of our CWA to drop to as cold as
the mid 20s-low 30s, but especially far eastern areas have held
up well into the mid 30s-low 40s as they got underneath the
thicker lower clouds earlier in the night.

In the big picture aloft, an expansive broad high pressure ridge
extends north-south through the heart of the U.S., while troughs
blank both the West/East Coasts.


- TODAY/CHRISTMAS DAY:
The aforementioned widespread low clouds/dense fog is clearly
the big story this morning as it continues to expand westward
into more and more of the western half of our CWA. Earlier
shifts issued/expanded a Dense Fog Advisory to include our
ENTIRE CWA, and leaning heavily on latest surface visibility
and/or low-RH model data from the RAP/HRRR/ECMWF, rather
widespread coverage of dense fog should make it MOST of the way
west through our CWA at some point this morning, but perhaps
struggle to get into our three western-most counties
(Dawson/Gosper/Furnas). That being said, will keep the CWA-wide
Advisory going for now just in case it creeps even farther west
than anticipated. It`s starting to look increasingly-likely that
at least "near-dense" visibility at-or-below 1/2 mile could
linger for up to a few hours into this afternoon (and thus
beyond the current Advisory end-time of Noon). Considered
tacking a few more hours onto the Advisory on this shift, but
after coordinating with neighboring offices will let upcoming
day shift make the possible decision to extend-in-time.

While fog is very clearly the main concern, went ahead and added
an official mention of "patchy drizzle" to mainly some of our
eastern-most counties through mid-afternoon...as our eastern CWA
could feature JUST ENOUGH depth/thickness in the low stratus
layer (up to around 1/2 kilometer) to promote some drizzle (as
opposed to just fog farther west). Speaking of the low cloud
layer...even as low visibility from fog improves, the majority
of our CWA will likely remain "socked in" under appreciable
clouds today, keeping any kind of significant warm-up at bay.

Wind-wise, speeds will remain light today (no more than 5-10
MPH) as direction gradually shifts from more easterly to more
southerly. The combination of the aforementioned/widespread low
clouds, the light winds/weak mixing all strongly argue that
temps will struggle to warm appreciably today. We may be still
be aiming too high in some areas, but now have highs targeted
right around 50 for the majority of our CWA, and any slightly
milder mid-upper 50s focused in our far western fringes
(Dawson/Gosper/Furnas) where the low clouds are least likely to
exert influence.


- THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT:
Through at least the first half of the night (roughly sunset
through midnight), especially the eastern half of our CWA will
likely see continued very low clouds and at least
patchy/sporadic fog (perhaps localized dense but "probably" not
worthy of another Advisory as things currently stand?). However,
as the night wears on (and especially post-midnight) surface/low
level breezes will pick up a bit (more consistently around 7-10
MPH) as they turn more due westerly (downslope), which should
pretty efficiently drive any lingering fog and low stratus out
of our CWA and off to the east. For most of our CWA, low temps
tonight should hold up several degrees warmer than this
morning...most areas mid-upper 30s.


- FRIDAY DAYTIME:
What a difference a day will make! With low clouds/fog out of
the picture and skies expected to be sunny/mostly sunny under
only modest amounts of passing high level cirrus, the stage
will be set for a very mild (and potentially record-setting) day
by late-December standards. About the only foreseeable "catch"
to full warming potential will be the fact that mixing could be
limited somewhat by overall-light west to southwesterly breezes
(most places sustained only 5-10 MPH although especially far
north-northwest counties could see some gusts 15+ MPH). At any
rate, nearly our entire CWA should see highs spike a good 15-20
degrees warmer than today, with widespread mid-upper 60s.


- FRIDAY NIGHT:
This should be a quiet/uneventful night featuring only light
southerly breezes and a fair amount but a fair amount of high-
level cloud cover streaming in on increasingly southwesterly
flow aloft. Low temps are aimed similar to perhaps very slightly
colder than those for Thurs night (most areas 33-38).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Now that the fog and most of the low-level stratus has moved off and
away for the day, temperatures are on their way into the mid 50s to
upper 60s this afternoon. Light to steady southwesterly winds among
a weak surface pressure gradient today will become variable at times
overnight tonight. A subtle low pressure center (~1004mb) sliding
down from the Rockies will steer winds towards a southeasterly
direction for Christmas Day. This gentle upslope flow with
temperatures overnight nearing the saturation dewpoints (upper 20s
to mid 30s) will likely lead to condensation and in turn fog
development again tonight.

Dense fog looks more than possible overnight into Christmas given
the latest and still consistent guidance between most high-res short-
term models. The bigger question will be how far west will this
patch of dense fog may travel. As of now, we project that a bank of
fog will spread from east to west between mainly 10PM and 8AM. This
fog could spread west of HWY-80 around to just after midnight and
west of HWY-281 around to after 5AM. Confidence in fog drops off
substantially for areas west of HWY-183. There is some additional
uncertainty in how long fog will stick around before mixing out.
Most guidance has fog clearing around noon, although the HRRR tries
to keep some fog around through the day. A Dense Fog Advisory will
be in effect from midnight until noon Christmas day for counties
west of HWY-183 and including Buffalo county.

The greatest forecast challenge for Christmas day beyond the fog
potential has been fine tuning the highs. Despite only being one
day out, the latest NBM 25th-75th percentile shows a spread of 5-10
degrees across the area with the greatest spread draped across our
eastern half (areas more susceptible to dense fog). Several factors
are contributing to this wide spread of uncertainty. Currently, the
ridging pattern aloft with anomalously warm mid-level temperatures
would in general favor temperatures closer to the 60s at the
surface, however, low-level stratus/fog blocking out the sun for a
majority if not the entire day may keep highs from leaving the upper
40s and 50s for the eastern 2/3rd of the area. In all likeliness, a
few of our western areas may overachieve expectation with our eastern
areas the most likely to underachieve in terms of highs.

The broad low pressure center, mentioned earlier, will pass
overnight Thursday along with a weak shortwave disturbance aloft.
This should help clear out clouds and turn the weak surface flow
back to a southwesterly direction for Friday. The return of
downslope flow (adiabatic warming) with the addition of mostly clear
skies for the first half of the day, should provide enough warming
potential for highs to reach the 60s to even the low 70s in a few
Kansas places. Clouds returning Friday evening with yet another
broad (1004mb) surface low passage will steer southerly winds
heading into the day Saturday. Highs are currently forecast to settle
in the low to mid 60s.

The most notable feature in the long-range period will be the
passage of a cold front Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures
should plummet around 25-35 degrees between Saturday and Sunday
(highs going from the low to mid 60s to the upper 20s and 30s). In
addition to the cold spell, far breezier northwesterly winds could
gust up top 30-40MPH during the afternoon hours Sunday.

For those questioning when the next chance for precipitation may
occur, a low-end chance (<20%) for light and non-accumulating snow
could materialize for a few northwestern places on the backside of a
passing compressed and negatively tilted trough Sunday. This feature
looks to be able to provide at least some mid-level assent (vorticity
advection at the base of a PV anomaly). At this time, however, we
would suggest for one to not get their hopes up quite yet as there
has not been enough model run-to-run consistency for a formal
mention in the forecast.

Beyond Sunday, dominating northwest flow aloft on the backside of
the departing trough will likely continue the period of dry
conditions. Widening confidence ranges from diverging ensemble
guidance keeps temperatures more in question to how they may rebound
following the cold front early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
At least several-to-numerous hours of very poor (LIFR/VLIFR)
aviation conditions are likely through sometime this afternoon
in dense fog/very low stratus. Then, the latter hours of the
period feature a fairly abrupt return to VFR with only scattered
mid-high level clouds. Winds will not be a significant issue,
with speeds through much of the period prevailing at-or-below
7KT as direction generally transitions from variable early this
morning...to southeasterly-southerly during the day...then more
southwesterly-westerly Thursday evening.

- Ceiling/visibility details:
- KGRI:
Very poor, LIFR/VLIFR conditions in dense fog with frequent
1/4SM visibility and very low ceiling are likely to persist for
pretty much the entire morning. By roughly 18Z an improvement to
IFR visibility is probable, but ceiling could could remain LIFR
for a few more hours. By around 21Z visibility should be back to
VFR, but an MVFR ceiling could still persist a bit longer.
Finally, a return to outright-VFR is expected by 23Z. Please
note confidence in this "exact" timing is only considered
"medium" at this time.

- KEAR:
Unlike KGRI, KEAR will likely start the period with several more
hours of VFR conditions before any dense fog/very low stratus
finally arrives from the east by around 12Z, at which time
LIFR/VLIFR conditions in dense fog with frequent 1/4SM
visibility and very low ceiling are likely to persist several
hours. In general, the aforementioned, gradual improvement in
flight categories should arrive to KEAR a bit earlier compared
to KGRI, and as a result will aim for a return to both VFR
ceiling and visibility by around 20Z. Again, confidence in this
"exact" timing is only considered "medium" at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 457 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

- REGARDING RECORD WARM TEMP POTENTIAL DEC 24-27:
As our overall-very-mild stretch of late-December continues
through Saturday, a few daily records for warmth (both daytime
highs and overnight lows) will likely end up being broken, with
Friday (Dec. 26) featuring the best potential for setting new
record daytime highs.

Below is where our latest forecast (or already-observed values)
stand versus existing records at Grand Island and Hastings
airports, the two NWS-maintained sites for which we issue
official Record Event Reports (RERGRI/RERHSI). Please note that
* indicates that our latest forecast/observed value would tie or
  break an existing daily record:


- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES             | Latest Forecast
                                         or Observed
Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 24: 64 in 2021                | Observed: 63
December 25: 62 in 1999,1963,1922      | Forecast: 50
December 26: 64 in 2005                | Forecast: 68*
December 27: 64 in 1937                | Forecast: 61

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 24: 66 in 1933                | Observed: 62
December 25: 62 in 1999,1950           | Forecast: 50
December 26: 65 in 2005                | Forecast: 68*
December 27: 64 in 1937                | Forecast: 61

_________________________________________________________

- RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES | Latest Forecast
                                         or Observed
Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 24: 34 in 1936                | Observed: 30
December 25: 34 in 1959                | Observed: 29
December 26: 38 in 1931                | Forecast: 38*
December 27: 34 in 1905                | Forecast: 37*

---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 24: 33 in 2005,1955           | Observed: 35* (NEW RECORD)
December 25: 34 in 1922                | Observed: 26
December 26: 38 in 1959                | Forecast: 38*
December 27: 37 in 1957                | Forecast: 37*

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...NWS Hastings